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Since its appearance in December, the new Coronavirus in 2019 will be explored-nCoV-intensive. In several studies, researchers collect knowledge about risk of Infection and genetics. What is known and what is not:
How contagious the new Coronavirus is?
This question is currently difficult to answer. It is clear that the Virus is spread by droplet infection – such as when coughing and Speaking.
“The pathogen is significantly more infectious than originally thought,” says the infection epidemiologist Lars what a pity, the Vice President of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
Many of the Details of the infection are still unclear, says the virologist Christian Drosten of the Berlin Charité. “I can’t reconstruct. You get the Virus is probably similar to how you catch a cold.“
That even symptom-free people can be infectious, as occasionally reported, keeps Drosten rather unlikely.
According to Chinese physicians can spread the Virus may be via the digestive system. They had found the pathogen in stool samples, after they had found that some patients had to get through a case, instead of usually a fever.
According to the RKI information, however, is not clarified yet, whether you can be infected indeed, in this way. Also from the mother to the newborn, the Virus is according to the findings in China are likely to be transferable.
What is striking is the discrepancy between the fast growth in China and the fact that in other countries, so far only a few people have plugged in is.
The virologist Thomas Schulz of Hannover Medical school (MHH) declares that the pathogen in China and circulated probably weeks, before the authorities took rigorous measures.
“You would have done this a month earlier, would not have escalated the Situation, probably so,” says Schulz.
What are the symptoms caused by the new Coronavirus?
The pathogen infects primarily cells of the lower respiratory tract. Thus, some of the symptoms of a cold such as flow seem cold not to occur. In General, the symptoms of the new respiratory disease are non-specific.
Fever, dry cough, and breathing problems can also occur in the case of a flu. “It is not enough to test only febrile individuals,” says Drosten.
“Some people have only pain is a slight cold symptoms with Chills and neck.” Sometimes patients may also have headache, or diarrhea.
The incubation period – the time between infection and the onset of symptoms – is two to 14 days. Therefore, suspected cases will be isolated for two weeks.
Is an infection detected, usually by the detection of the genome of the Coronavirus in the Sputum, the mucus discharge when coughing.
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How dangerous is the disease?
This is currently very difficult to answer. The proportion of Infected people dying of the lung disease, is based on the current data in China at about 2 percent — higher than in the case of a flu.
In the case of the flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968, the case mortality was, according to Drosten at around 0.1 percent.
The high value in China, the expert explained with the fact that there are especially serious cases will be known. “Many people in China only, if you are really sick. These cases are not representative.“
“We don’t know the actual numbers,” says what a pity. Outside of China, the case mortality is currently low. The low death rate was initially not encouraging, “but we have to watch,” said what a pity.
Clemens Wendtner, who cared for the Infected in the Munich, clinic Schwabing, seven, assumes that “the mortality rate is clearly below one percent, even in the parts per thousand range.”
“With a very, very dangerous disease that has not much to do,” he says.
How can the new lungs to treat the disease?
A specific therapy for the disease, there is not. Seriously ill patients are symptomatic AIDS, treatment of any bacterial additives infections, and sometimes mechanical ventilation treated with fever-lowering.
The epidemic with the existing actions stop?
The Coronavirus epidemic will reach its peak in the mid-to end of next week, said the head of the national teams of experts in the fight against the Coronavirus, Zhong Nanshan, on Monday. Whether this is realistic, can be German according to experts, it is impossible to estimate.
“I don’t know the data and models from the Chinese,” says Schulz, it tends but to skepticism. “At the moment, the curve goes steeply upward.” The infection epidemiologist what a pity, agrees: “I would be with the forecasts very carefully.”
Drosten, adds: “the key is whether China manages to stop the Transfers. I can imagine already.“
A second question, the Commission added, however, he stresses: a Nest of the Virus in countries with poor healthcare system in Africa or Asia, where it would be time to control yet? Then a new lung illness threatened permanently to the world.
Schulz believed that the disease will go back in China with the beginning of the warmer Season of the year, similar to flu and colds. “The question is whether it comes back next year.”
- Tuite, A. et al. (2020):Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic, retrieved on 07.02.2020: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa)
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